The Blue Wave of 2018

In the aftermath of the midterm elections of 2014, I wrote a post which, for various reasons, I never got around to publishing until I found it lurking in my drafts file in May 2018. In the sixth year of Barack Obama's presidency, Democratic candidates had just gotten trounced in a midterm election that featured the lowest voter turnout in decades.

Turnout was high in 2008. Many people who had never cast a vote before, despite being eligible for many years, went out and voted for the very first time. For a lot of people the motivating factor here was the opportunity to vote for the FIRST! BLACK! PRESIDENT! It worked: As you may be aware, Barack Obama became President. 

In 2010, just two years later, turnout was low again. Many of the people who were excited about voting in 2008 had other priorities on Election Day in 2010. Besides, for the most part the elections were either for one bland late-middle-aged white guy running against another bland late-middle-aged white guy, or were being held in districts so gerrymandered that the outcome was a foregone conclusion. What was there to get excited about? The Democratic get-out-the-vote machine that had been in action in 2008 was mostly silent. 

...Which brings us to 2014. The economy is recovering, we are told, though most of us do not feel it; in fact, most of the gains from the improving economy are going to the wealthiest strata of society. War and pestilence are everywhere, with ISIS waiting to chop off our heads and spread Ebola through illegal immigrants. Congress is historically inactive, engaging in partisan bickering and the occasional grand but meaningless gestures doomed to failure. Approval for the President's performance is low, but approval for Congressional performance is barely in the double digits. 

Last Tuesday, a smaller percentage of America's eligible voters came out to vote. The Republicans won handily, and now control both branches of Congress. 

The people who voted for these Republicans will share in the blame for their actions. That's a given. But the people who were so excited to vote in 2008, and who turned out again in 2012, but didn't bother to vote in 2014 - those people let it happen. As did everyone who sat at home on Election Day 2014 and didn't bother to vote.

Apathy. Hopelessness in the face of gerrymandering. And a lack of enthusiasm when faced with the choice of one bland late-middle-aged white guy vs. another bland late-middle-aged white guy. And maybe, just maybe, a populace that felt pretty OK with the way things were going, and didn't mind seeing Barack Obama in the White House countered by a bunch of Republicans in Congress.

Things are different in 2018. Donald Trump is the most insanely unpopular and divisive president (that term used to be spelled with a capital "P", but not anymore, not for the duration) in generations, possibly ever. Pennsylvania, at least, took on the issue of gerrymandering, and a redistricted map was eventually decided upon which made almost no one completely happy, but more closely met the requirements for fair representation than the previous design. People were enthusiastic and excited about the election, and the get-out-the-vote effort was relentless. And, on the Democratic side at least, a lot fewer of the candidates were bland late-middle-aged white guys.

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Democrats took the House. That wasn't a sure thing going into the election, despite Nancy Pelosi's expressions of certainty. Republicans held the Senate and slightly increased their majority, but by less than was expected - and no one seriously expected the Democrats to win a majority in the Senate. (Hoped, maybe, but not expected.) Democrats also took or held important gubernatorial positions.

Democrats taking the House is the most important outcome of the election. Had Republicans held both houses of Congress, we could expect to see things continue as they are, with an emboldened Donald Trump continuing to ram through his agenda without any restriction. But a Democratic House presents a check on his presidency, a check that was absent for its first two years. Let's see what they can accomplish in the next two years.